After winning a series against the American League’s best, the Guardians will meet the team most experts expect to win the National League over the next three days.
The Guardians are 29-23 with a -11 run differential, 18th in MLB with 96 wRC+, 18th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -0.8, fifth in Defense at 2.8, 24th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.38, and seventh in bullpen SIERA at 3.44.
The Dodgers are 32-21 with a +59 run differential, second in MLB with 124 wRC+, fourth in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 3.6, 12th in Defense at -4, 19th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.12, and third in bullpen SIERA at 3.22.
Well… their starting pitching and defense hasn’t been great. So, try to get to the starters and get the ball in play, there’s your keys. I’d like to see Gabriel Arias and Daniel Schneemann get their seasons back on track a bit at this point.
Matchups:
Game One, Monday, 6:10PM EDT: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP 2.63 SIERA and Gavin Williams, RHP 3.96 SIERA
Game Two, Tuesday, 6:10PM EDT: Dustin May, RHP 3.64 SIERA vs. Tanner Bibee, 4.42 SIERA
Game Three, Wednesday, 1:10PM EDT: Clayton Kershaw, LHP 5.22 SIERA vs. TBD (Likely Slade Cecconi, RHP 2.61 SIERA)
Well, these are the current top three pitchers in the Dodgers’ rotation. So, it’ll be a good challenge that way. It may be the top three pitchers in the Guardians’ rotation, which is suddenly a compliment given that Luis Ortiz is doing well. Hopefully, these will be some good games with the Guardians winning the series and catching the attention of national writers who will remark on this plucky upstart and then immediately forget about them for the next four months. Which is fine with me.
The Dodgers’ top hitters with at least 50 plate appearances are Freddie Freeman at 185 wRC+, Shohei Ohtani at 176 wRC+, Will Smith at 172 wRC+, Teoscar Hernandez at 156 wRC+, Andy Pages at 119 wRC+, Mookie Betts at 117 wRC+, Enrique Hernandez at 108 wRC+ and Tommy Edman at 107 wRC+. Sheesh, that’s a lot of good hitters everywhere you look. No wonder these guys are good.
The Guardians’ top hitters with at least 50 plate appearances are Jose Ramirez at 146 wRC+, Steven Kwan at 137 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann at 129 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo at 118 wRC+, Carlos Santana at 108 wRC+ and Bo Naylor at 105 wRC+.
Here goes nothing! Can’t wait to see who emerges as the hero this time around.
GLOSSARY
wRC+ – Weighted Runs Created Plus – A measure of determining a player’s run production value while controlling for park effects. 100 is league average.
Baserunning Runs Above Average – A metric including stolen base value, double-play avoidance, and taking extra bases to determine how many runs above average a team is on the basepaths
Defense – This stat gives you how many runs above average a team’s defenders save their team, adjusted for positional value (i.e. a catcher has far more defensive value for a team than a first baseman).
SIERA – A metric to determine a pitcher’s true ERA based on strikeout rate, walk rate, and quality of batted-balls given up. This number is similar to ERA (3 and under is excellent) in determining player performance.
