The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, May 15th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 15th
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NBA Best Bets Today – May 15
Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 8:30 pm ET
I thought this would be a straightforward series. I ignored what I saw in Games 3 and 4 of Oklahoma City’s opening-round series against Memphis, and I really thought the Thunder would look at least a little like the team that won 68 games during the regular season. However, now that Oklahoma City has played nine playoff games, it’s pretty clear that group is nowhere to be found.
Defensively, the Thunder still look quite good. They have the best playoff defensive rating (101.1) of anyone, and that number is better than it was (106.6) during their historic regular season. But Oklahoma City’s offensive rating is just 115.2 through nine playoff games, which is down quite a bit from 119.2 during the year. And realistically, that number would be even lower if not for two outrageous performances: a 131-point game against the Grizzlies in Game 1 of the first round and a 149-point performance against the Nuggets in Game 2 of this series.
All in all, Jalen Williams hasn’t looked like the No. 2 option we all thought he could be, Chet Holmgren hasn’t played well enough on either end of the floor and the entire team has shot the 3-ball inconsistently. All of that makes it hard to like Oklahoma City to win comfortably in a win-or-go-home game for Denver at Ball Arena.
The Nuggets nearly stole Game 5 at the Paycom Center, as they had the Thunder on the ropes throughout and then we saw a late flurry from Oklahoma City to push the team across the finish line. But NBA Game Report — a must-follow account on X — had the expected score as Nuggets 116.0 – Thunder 107.5. That factors in expected points per shot versus actual points per shot, noting all the different types of shots each team hit and how they would normally do on those types of looks. Shot Quality told a similar story, giving Denver a Shot Quality Score of 114.5 and Oklahoma City just 106.2. Of course, playing at home helped the Thunder. Some role players were comfortable knocking down shots in their own building. We see that all the time in the playoffs. But I think things will even out in Denver.
Pick: Nuggets +5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Nuggets ML (+160 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 15
Game 6: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 8:30 pm ET
I thought about playing some Nikola Jokic props tonight, but I couldn’t turn down this Aaron Gordon play. Gordon is averaging 2.6 made 3s per game in this series, and he has made at least two triples in four of the five games thus far. Gordon also happened to attempt five 3s in Oklahoma City in Game 5, marking the fourth time this series in which he has done that. Well, as long as Gordon attempts five or six 3s in this game, I’ll be happy I made this play. Gordon shot a career-high 43.6% from deep during the regular season, and that number climbed to 52.0% when he played at Ball Arena. Gordon really used to be a non-shooter, but he has worked nonstop on his jumper. Well, it has all paid off this year, and I’m now hoping to capitalize on it. The Thunder really haven’t prioritized closing out on the big wing, so I think he’ll continue to get good looks.
Pick: Gordon Over 1.5 Made 3s (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 414-422-2 (+9.46 units)
