What is the difference between tornado watch vs tornado warning?
Severe weather season is underway in Oklahoma. It’s important to understand these terms before an alert is issued.
Severe storms capable of producing baseball-sized hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible this week across Texas, including Midland-Odessa, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Lubbock.
Forecasters expect the threat of severe weather to persist from Tuesday through at least Friday, with storms tracking eastward across the state.
The risk will likely shift by region throughout the week, with different areas facing higher chances on different days, according to local and National Weather Service forecasts.
Tuesday: Scattered storms across Texas
Midland-Odessa (Permian Basin)
The National Weather Service in Midland warns of a medium risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly east of a Tatum-to-Panther Junction line. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible, especially in the Permian Basin and southern High Plains.
Airflow around the Trans-Pecos, Davis, and Glass mountains may enhance tornado potential near I-10 in the Fort Stockton area, according to MyRadar meteorologist Matthew Cappucci.
Lubbock area (South Plains)
Thunderstorms are expected across much of the South Plains region Tuesday afternoon, continuing into the night, according to NWS Lubbock. Some storms may become severe, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. While the tornado threat remains low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Dallas-Fort Worth and Central Texas
The Dallas-Fort Worth area could see two rounds of storms Tuesday. The first will be isolated afternoon thunderstorms across Central and East Texas, mainly south of I-20 and along/east of the I-35 corridor. Coverage will be sparse, and any storms should weaken quickly after sunset, according to NWS Fort Worth/Dallas.
A second round may arrive after midnight as a weakening cluster moves in from the northwest. The best rain chances (around 40%) will be across western North and Central Texas, but forecasters are uncertain how strong these storms will remain.
Both rounds carry a low-end severe threat. The main risks are hail and damaging winds.
Wednesday: Sneaky tornado setup in West Texas
Severe weather is expected to intensify Wednesday with a “sneaky tornado risk” across West Texas, Cappucci said online. Supercells may develop along the dryline, where dry desert air meets Gulf moisture, bringing threats of destructive hail up to baseball size, 70+ mph winds, and isolated tornadoes near Lamesa, Big Spring and Snyder.
Moisture levels will increase, and a weak mid-level disturbance could spark stronger storms, especially where they interact with leftover outflow boundaries from Tuesday. Similar setups triggered tornadoes near Anson and Hawley in May 2024.
Storm development will be influenced by a phenomenon called lee cyclogenesis — when southwesterly winds over the Rockies generate low pressure on the eastern side. This setup, combined with vertical wind shear, could promote storm rotation.
North of the warm front, cooler air may suppress severe activity, limiting northern Oklahoma and Kansas to hail and gusty winds.
Thursday to Sunday: Scattered storms and a low severe threat
The National Weather Service office in Midland reports a medium risk of severe thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly over the Western Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin. Any severe storms could bring large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
In North Texas, the unsettled weather pattern will persist through the end of the week, with scattered showers and storms each day, according to the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. While a few storms may be strong to marginally severe, the overall risk for widespread severe weather remains low. Storm chances will gradually decrease through the weekend, but will rise again early next week.
Tornado watch vs tornado warning: What’s the difference?
Tornado watch: Tornadoes are possible and residents should be alert.
Tornado warning: Tornadoes have been spotted or indicated on weather radar, and residents should seek shelter immediately.
